Gold price outlook for tomorrow and this week

The ounce is at 4,072.10 dollars and the one-month trend is sideways: +5.05% on the week and -2.04% on the month. The figures below come from the daily price record; they are not a promise about tomorrow.

Expected range for tomorrow: between 4,016.54 and 4,127.66 dollars an ounce if the price moves like its usual daily move of the last 30 days (±1.36%). A break outside it usually takes strong news: a rate decision, inflation data or a geopolitical shock.

The price is below its 30-day average by 0.16%; momentum favours sellers while it stays below the average, and a return above it is a sign of recovery.

What the market is watching

Gold tends to fall when the dollar or bond yields rise, and to climb when they ease or when oil lifts inflation expectations. The readings in the table are from the latest markets update.

What it means for 21K per gram

Method: the trend is read from where the current price sits against its 30-day average and from the weekly change. The expected range for tomorrow is the current price ± the standard deviation (σ) of the daily change over the last 30 records: historically the price stayed inside a range of that size on about two days in three and broke out on the third, which is exactly what happens on a rate decision, an inflation print or a geopolitical shock. This is a statistical reading of what the price has done recently, not a prediction of what it will do and not a recommendation to buy or sell; nobody knows tomorrow's price, and the decision stays yours after checking the figures with your jeweller or adviser.